Higher temperatures may cause economic losses of S$2.22 billion in 2035
Dr Natalia Borzino's study on the impact of higher temperatures on the productivity in the services, manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors was featured in Singapore's Chinese-language paper Lianhe Zaobao on 2 June.
After studying data from 42 industries in four major sectors, Dr Natalia Borzino, Post-doctoral Researcher at SEC, estimates that economic losses from higher temperatures across industries will reach S$ 2.22 billion by 2035.
This study was part of the findings of external page Project HeatSafe, a collaborative research project based in the National University of Singapore. These findings were released in March 2024.
Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore's main Chinese-language newspaper, covered some of Dr Borzino's findings in a commentary titled, 'Looking at general trends: As high temperatures cost companies, how do they calculate the cost of heat?' (悉看大势：高温天气灼伤成本 企业烫手账本怎么算?)
A translation of Dr Borzino's portion can be found below:
Translated from the Mandarin
"Dr Natalia Borzino, Postdoctoral Researcher from the Singapore-ETH Centre, published a study in March this year. After analysing data from 42 industries in four major sectors, namely services, manufacturing, agriculture and construction, she pointed out that in 2018, high temperatures caused an average decrease of 11.3% in productive working time in various sectors, resulting in a total loss of SG$ 1.18 billion.
Dr Natalia estimates that by 2035, the loss of working time caused by high temperatures will further increase to 14%, and the economic loss will reach SG$ 2.22 billion.
In an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Dr Natalia further elaborated on the productivity decline rate in different sectors and the resulting economic losses.
In 2018, the effective working time in the service sector and manufacturing sector decreased by 2.9% and 8.1% respectively, while the agriculture and construction sectors decreased by 17%; by 2035, the loss of working hours in the service sector and manufacturing sector will increase to 4% and 10.7% respectively, while the agriculture and construction sectors will increase to 20.7%.
By 2035, the economic losses of the service sector will reach SG$ 1.279 billion, and the manufacturing sector will reach SG$ 648 million, both doubling from 2018; the economic losses of the construction sector and agriculture will be SG$ 293 million and SG$ 0.45 million respectively.
Dr Natalia analysed that the effective working time in agriculture and construction sectors will be mostly impacted and this is because a large part of their workers are highly exposed to heat on a daily basis. The services sector suffers the most economic losses because this is the biggest sector in the Singapore economy and their workers receive higher wages compared with workers in other sectors.
To reduce the economic losses caused by heat, Dr Natalia said that tropical and subtropical countries affected by global warming, particularly low and middle-income countries, should build resilience against the current and future effects of hot climate conditions and take measures to protect working people from current high heat levels at workplaces.
These countries should also continue to invest in green technologies and apply them to energy systems, cooling of buildings, transport and economic activities to reduce the impact of heat on productivity and mental performance."
Photo Credit: Justin Lim on Unsplash
Read: Looking at general trends: external page 'As high temperatures cost companies, how do they calculate the cost of heat?' (悉看大势：高温天气灼伤成本 企业烫手账本怎么算?) on Lianhe Zaobao (paywall, in Mandarin).